Americans are traveling more than ever, and Las Vegas still has a problem overseas. A new U.S. Travel Association forecast released November 5, two days after the midterm elections, projects inflation-adjusted international visitor spending will fall nearly $11 billion in 2026, a 6.3% drop to $163 billion. That happens even as Americans take a record 2.44 billion domestic trips this year.
Record domestic travel is not enough to replace the overseas guest. Total inflation-adjusted U.S. travel spending is still projected to decline 0.7% to $1.35 trillion. For a city that sells itself to the whole world, that gap matters more here than in most places.
The Forecast in Five Numbers
| 2026 forecast measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| International visitor spending | $163 billion, down 6.3% |
| Domestic trips by Americans | 2.44 billion, a record |
| Total travel spending, inflation-adjusted | $1.35 trillion, down 0.7% |
| Travel prices | Up 7.2%, vs. 3.4% overall inflation |
| U.S. share of global long-haul arrivals | 7.7%, down from 10.3% in 2019 |
Two details keep this honest. The forecast does not put a precise dollar loss on Las Vegas itself, so no one should invent one. And U.S. Travel says the $11 billion decline represents economic activity at risk; it is not a modeled jobs or tax-loss estimate. The longer view is clear, though: U.S. international arrivals are not forecast to recover to 2019 levels until 2030, and the U.S. share of global long-haul arrivals is projected to slip to 7.1% by 2030.
"The election is over, but the economic stakes are only getting higher," said Geoff Freeman, president and CEO of the U.S. Travel Association. "Travel supports American workers and communities. Congress has a December deadline to protect holiday travel and a new year to reverse the loss of international visitors."
Why Vegas Feels This One Differently
Here is the local twist most national coverage misses. At Harry Reid International Airport, international travel was the one segment growing in September. The airport handled nearly 283,000 international passengers that month, up 5.9% from a year ago, while domestic passengers fell 9.2% to about 3.71 million and the overall total fell 8.4% to 4,076,634, according to Clark County Department of Aviation figures.
The overseas visitor is not Las Vegas' weak spot right now. That visitor is the bright spot. A national slide in international spending pressures exactly the part of the market that was still climbing here, while the record domestic crowd keeps competing for the same rooms and weekend flights.
- Jobs on the line nationally: travel supports more than 15 million American jobs and generates $92 billion in state and local taxes.
- The industry's 2030 goal: welcoming 100 million international visitors a year could generate $68 billion in additional annual visitor spending and support more than 350,000 additional jobs.
- The next deadline: Congress faces a December 11 funding deadline, which U.S. Travel ties to keeping holiday travel moving.
How to Use This If You Are Booking Vegas
- Book earlier than feels necessary. Travel prices are projected to rise 7.2% in 2026, more than twice overall inflation. Waiting is the expensive strategy, especially around the Las Vegas Grand Prix, November 19 to 21, and the holidays.
- Do not wait for an empty-city discount. A record 2.44 billion domestic trips means American travelers are still filling planes and hotels, even while international spending falls.
- Watch the international flights, not just the room rate. September showed international passengers growing at Harry Reid while domestic fell. Fuller overseas routes are a real signal that a weekend will be busy, and priced like it.
Freeman's closing line sums it up: "We have the opportunity to deliver a better travel experience for Americans and bring more international spending and jobs back to our communities. Standing still is not a strategy." Las Vegas knows how to compete for a visitor. This forecast says that competition just got global, and more expensive, at the same time.
